A worthwhile analysis of some - but not all - of the variables involved in any decision Senator Clinton might make with regard to joining an Obama administration - assuming she's actually being asked to do so

Ultimately, there are numerous variables that go into a President's decision to offer somebody a post in her or his administration and there are numerous variables that go into a decision to accept or decline. Some are totally unknown to the public. Others are publicly available but not highlighted. For example, if any given senator accepts a position in the Obama administration that affects not only the who will be the next senator from the relevant state - something that depends, for the most part, on who the governor of that state would appoint, which in turn depends on any number of variables not generally analyzed in the national or international press. Furthermore, decisions about departing the senate affect who ends up chairing what committees there - as do decisions about when to resign one's senate seat if one is about to assume another elected office. For example, by resigning his senate seat effective today, Senator Obama opens the door for the Governor of Illinois to appoint a replacement before the six newly elected senators from November 4 are sworn in in January, thereby giving that appointee seniority over all of them. And because seniority plays an extremely prominent role in who gets what position in Senate committees this sort of fact matters.

When it comes to Senator Clinton remaining in the Senate or joining the Obama administration, it really does seem impossible for commentators to weigh up all the variables and offer anything other than educated guesses about what would be good for Senator Clinton's political power, what would be good for New Yorkers, and what would be good for the Senate. That said, this analysis, from the Financial Times, is the best I have seen in the mainstream media so far. It is not perfect, but it hits some new notes, including reporting the possibility that Obama is considering Clinton for "Pentagon chief" - by which the reporter means...I'm not sure...Secretary of Defense?

For some idea of the free for all that can be unleashed by a person's decision to leave the Congress to work for the administration, check out this story from Chicago.

Comments

[Al]

Good read and interesting analysis. It may be in the best interests of the Democrats to keep Senator Hillary Clinton in the US Senate, or they may run the risk of losing her senate seat should a Republican beat out an inexperienced replacement who is tapped to take her place by Governor David Paterson.

Al

[ainnj]

I would bet that the replacement will be Robert Kennedy Jr. so I don't think NY or the Senate would suffer a lose come reelection.

I'm still not betting the farm that this offer is on the up and up. Obama's track record isn't exactly stellar when it comes to appointing women to his campaign or how fellow female Democrats are dealt with by his campaign. It could also very well be that Senator Clinton wants the position, knowing that any dreams of higher political aspirations have been basically squashed. Or maybe she doesn't want it and would rather spend the rest of her political career as junior senator from NY. This I doubt.

My guess is the obama campaign will use Bill Clinton's foreign ties as an excuse not to pick Sen. Clinton and then appoint either that mannequin known as kerry or billybob richardson, who even obama must know cannot be trusted as far as you can throw him.

[Cyn NY]

Excellent analysis, Heidi. This is what jumped out at me from the article you linked:

Obama might be at the zenith of his power right now but that is not going to last. Does she really want to sacrifice her political portfolio and throw everything in with him?"